Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 22:49:00

AWUS01 KWNH 102248
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-110245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0857
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102245Z - 110245Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving storms, capable of producing rainfall rates
of 1-2 inches/hr are expected to continue into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Supported by a deep moisture pool (PWs ~2-2.25
inches), ample instability (MLCAPEs 3000-3500 J.kg), and weak
steering flow, slow-moving storms producing locally heavy rainfall
rates continue to move along a stalled frontal boundary centered
over the region.  MRMS estimates show rainfall rates reaching
above 1.5 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  These storms
continue to lack significant organization and the loss of daytime
heating is expected to support a downward trend in coverage over
the next few hours.  However, some storms may persist into the
evening hours, with the potential for locally heavy amounts.  The
18Z HREF shows notable probabilities for additional accumulations
of 1-2 inches over the next few hours, with the highest
probabilities (greater than 70 percent) centered over northeastern
North Carolina.   Due to the recent very heavy rainfall associated
with Tropical Cyclone Debby, any additional heavy rainfall is
likely to translate immediately into runoff, raising additional
flash flooding concerns.

Pereira

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6ZEFP0p6ehO-dZ9nMC70bbPuzJyinCQ-igeof6IyppNMUuyI2lx9_nT0z8StHz47-jcD=
HGSY0vqAa8P7lZgZihKcKlU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36637699 36547594 36097592 34717734 33937885=20
            33557988 33338071 33478186 33978198 34518090=20
            35367876=20

=3D =3D =3D
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