Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 20:01:40

ACUS01 KWNS 102001
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and
perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over
parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains.

Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho
where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely
scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally
large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central
High Plains.

A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional
storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay
too limited and isolated for a marginal risk.

...Bentley.. 08/10/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/

....Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains...
A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook
area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a
deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000
J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer.

With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through
moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain
West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast
this afternoon.  Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25
to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly
upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in
the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident.  Risk may be locally
greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but
overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this
evening.

$$

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