Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 16:39:22

AWUS01 KWNH 101639
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0855
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Areas affected...far eastern GA into central and eastern SC/NC as
well as southeastern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101636Z - 102235Z

SUMMARY...Efficient rainfall production from scattered afternoon
thunderstorms could result in isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding atop saturated soils. Rainfall rates are expected to vary
between 1-3 in/hr.

DISCUSSION...GOES East visible imagery from 1615Z showed a
building cumulus field along a sea breeze boundary along the SC/NE
coast as well as near/east of a slow moving front analyzed SW to
NE through the central Carolinas. 12Z soundings from CHS and MHX
showed a very moist environment with precipitable water values of
2.1 to 2.3 inches along with wet bulb zero heights as high as 14.7
kft. 850-300 mb mean layer winds varied from near 5 kt in SC to
10-15+ kt in NC, faster with northern extent. While there was some
dry air centered near 500 mb in both soundings, with this dry
layer noted on layered PW imagery, the environment will still be
capable of producing rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in an hour or less
time, especially as convective coverage increases later today.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next 60
minutes as surface temperatures reach their convective temperature
and convergence helps to initially focus activity along the
front/sea breeze boundaries. Coverage should increase throughout
the afternoon near and east of the slow moving synoptic front with
cell mergers and outflow interactions likely. A lack of shear loft
should limit cell organization but brief training will be possible
due to the weak steering flow and similarly oriented 850 mb wind
vectors in many locations of the eastern Carolinas.

5-day rainfall across the region has exceeded 10 inches in some
locations which has left soils saturated in most places. While
additional rainfall may only reach into the 2-4 inch range and
remain localized to scattered across the region, there will be
enhanced sensitivity to flash flooding as thunderstorm coverage
increases.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!50DK7yZyP0U2lCoNf9dEMGLZK3CJCL2syMb4YAadi2MekqFtjTWYTJNNV5MC4A8dM3q5=
zPBHSbbU2jqcQQ9eBgevLUI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37037658 37007611 36767584 36097564 34997641=20
            34277703 33677787 33157874 32417975 32208068=20
            32438155 33568240 34638071 35267928 36687723=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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