Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 17:05:39 ACUS02 KWNS 101705 SWODY2 SPC AC 101703 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ....Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ....Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ...Bentley.. 08/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .