Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 12:45:38 ACUS01 KWNS 101245 SWODY1 SPC AC 101244 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ....High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ...Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .