Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 08:35:41

ACUS48 KWNS 100835
SWOD48
SPC AC 100834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies
into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period.
Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple
weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the
northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the
northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any
of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the
best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High
Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both
instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe
area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek
onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may
move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even
so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this
feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities.

...Gleason.. 08/10/2024

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