Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 07:27:36 ACUS03 KWNS 100727 SWODY3 SPC AC 100726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ....Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe probabilities. ....Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK, and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. ...Gleason.. 08/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .