Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 05:36:08 ACUS01 KWNS 100536 SWODY1 SPC AC 100534 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains into southern Montana. ....High Plains into southern MT... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool, originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period, the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. ...Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .