Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 04:04:45

AWUS01 KWNH 100404
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-100903-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0854
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Areas affected...Northeast NM into the TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100403Z - 100903Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to eject
east out across portions of the southern High Plains over the next
few hours. Additional scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible.

DISCUSSION...The late evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
clusters of cold-topped convection with heavy rainfall rates
ejecting east across northeast NM and into adjacent areas of the
TX/OK Panhandle region. The convection is situated near an area of
low pressure and in close proximity to the a frontal zone. The
greater convective organization is over northeast NM where MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted. A low-level moisture
convergence max is also noted across this region based on the
latest objective analysis from the RAP.

There may be enough convective organization over the next couple
of hours to support a small scale MCS evolution that will
gradually eject east out into the TX Panhandle while additional
and somewhat less organized convection impacts areas a bit farther
north into the OK Panhandle. Some weak shortwave energy ejecting
east across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle overnight will
tend to regionally help facilitate some degree of convective
sustenance going into the overnight hours.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected to continue at
least in the short-term and some localized 2 to 4 inch totals may
occur where any cell-training occurs. Thus, some additional
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible over the
next few hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_HFVrn3kytwE90dk3zEQyUaVmRNj29Q2YBmjmeGTF8w_6PHiSsiDXg5xFNu7MyqaGfj3=
CMPpUYMiBiFOhlh1NDHlS84$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36950103 36939977 36309955 35600024 35180157=20
            34800378 35180512 35680538 35980513 36150460=20
            36420304=20

=3D =3D =3D
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