Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 03:22:12

AWUS01 KWNH 100322
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-100730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0853
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 PM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Areas affected...Upstate SC...Western and Central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100320Z - 100730Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall rates over the next few hours.
Given the wet and locally saturated soil conditions, these rains
will likely result in isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery in
conjunction with dual-pol radar shows scattered areas of
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across portions of central
and western NC and down into northwest SC. The activity is focused
along a very slow-moving frontal boundary as a wave of low
pressure lifts northeast along it. The airmass pooled along the
boundary is moist and unstable with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500
J/kg and there is a corridor of weak upper-level jet dynamics
overhead which is yielding some weak deeper layer ascent. Some
modest moisture convergence is situated along the boundary as well.

Over the next few hours, some additional areas of slow-moving
shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected before a
sufficient level of boundary layer CINH takes over and helps to
weaken the convective activity. PWs remain locally near 1.75
inches and this will help drive heavy rainfall rates that may
reach 1 to 2 inches/hour in the meantime.

The slow cell-motions will favor some localized storm totals going
through 06Z (2AM EDT) of 2 to 4 inches, and given the wet and
locally saturated soil conditions from recent heavy rainfall,
there will likely be some additional isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7OGlp_oHGGV5Pg7Fb6OsrYRe3c3LaD17oJvA60GGwOALo3zLSK6wk_KWqYzW2xaw43-n=
j0XffTtxag2nubTgJV8kth4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36557925 36407871 35677890 35018097 34448181=20
            34358262 34808290 35308225 35798159 36328039=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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