Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 10 2024 00:41:06 ACUS01 KWNS 100040 SWODY1 SPC AC 100039 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WYOMING... ....SUMMARY... A marginal threat for a tornado continues this evening across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ....01z Update... Remnants of TS Debby are quickly lifting northeast into southern QC early this evening. While low-level shear remains strong ahead of the progressive short-wave trough, buoyancy is negligible across northern New England and very limited across southern portions. Over the last hour or so, lightning has diminished as cloud tops warm and convection is weakening. Will maintain a marginal risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado this evening. Otherwise, severe threat appears to be diminishing. Upstream across the southern High Plains into WY, west-northwesterly flow is dominant along the northern periphery of the southern US anticyclone centered over TX. A few weak disturbances are progressing across the Great Basin before turning southeast toward the central High Plains. Each of these features appears to be influencing a couple of corridors of organized convection. The southern-most corridor extends from southwest KS into northeast NM. This activity should spread into the TX Panhandle later this evening and gusty winds could be noted at times. Even so, lapse rates are not especially steep at AMA this evening with roughly 300 J/kg MLCAPE. Warm advection profiles favor this activity persisting deep into the evening hours. Scattered convection is also somewhat organized across south-central WY, immediately ahead of a weak disturbance. RIW sounding exhibited weak buoyancy, and the air mass east of the Laramie Mountains is poor with surface temperatures only in the upper 50s. This activity could generate gusty winds for a few hours, but otherwise remain mostly below severe levels. ...Darrow.. 08/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .