Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 09 2024 22:37:09 AWUS01 KWNH 092237 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-100400- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0852 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 636 PM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...Northern NM...Southeast CO...Western OK/TX Panhandles... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 092230Z - 100400Z SUMMARY...Confluent steering flow provides an opportunity for training thunderstorms and repeating cells across the High Plains and Southern Rockies with localized flash flooding possible. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes southern ridge reestablishing itself further east across West Texas and Southeast NM with broad warming noted across this area in all 3 WV channels. The return moisture through many layers is starting to generally align across the northwest to north-central portion of the ridge as noted by the CIRA LPW suite. Both the 850-700 and 700-500mb depict a enhanced ribbon from the central AZ/NM border lifting northeast then flattening across N NM, with the 850-700mb maximized from the Sangre de Cristo across into the Upper Red River Valley with ..5-.75" estimated, while 500-700mb is maximized from AZ to north-central NM at .4 to .6", both showing 90th and some spots of 95th percentile values. A shortwave at the the right entrance to the strengthening polar jet across the Central Plains exists across SE CO, with trailing trough back toward the Four Corners.=20 As the energy elongated vertically exiting the Southern Colorado Rockies, further surface to 850mb cyclogenesis is expected. Winds in the TX panhandle are starting to veer in response after this morning's convective debris has eroded. As such, sfc-850mb CIRA LPW shows some increasing moisture back into the Panhandles with ..5 to .85" noted along and south of the stationary front. All in all, this is supporting a well above average moisture plume through depth into the elongated mid-level trough.=20 Insolation across NM, has resulted in a broad field of cu with streets lifting north into the boundary and already becoming active convection across the higher terrain of NW and central NM. Instability of 500-1500 MLCAPE will provide ample vertical ascent and moisture loading through depth to provide increasing rainfall efficiency through the afternoon into the evening.=20 Current activity across NE NM/SE CO is starting to organize into clusters and appears to have solid potential to scale up into a complex over the next few hours. Deep layer flow will align to the frontal zone and trail behind the wake of this morning's convection enhanced by the differential heating boundary from the stratus across SW KS and the NE Panhandle region. Rates of 1.25-1.5" may rise to locally 1.75" through the late evening (with ..75-1.25" across the mountains where moisture depth is a tad lower, but still well above normal). As noted in the CIRA LPW analysis, this is the confluent steering and upstream inflow may support back-building but will allow for training/repeating particularly east of the terrain. As such, spots of 2-3" in 2-4 hours are probable across northeast NM/SE CO into NW Panhandles.=20 Lowered FFG values of 1-2"/hr and 1.5-3"/3hrs are well within range of short-term rainfall totals, so flash flooding is considered possible into the early overnight period. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-p3u_Hbkc8e5UdqI6bGcJFOn67ln6nk9cGSyG8js9d8zvFGii8HqiSWh8kzo9tzhl7AB= DiLNev6LGOfUXR8yd4IBRxQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38030379 37820256 36940208 36050085 35100108=20 34840222 35210385 34960521 33960601 34000781=20 35050864 36410841 36940643 37300517=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .