Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1874
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 09 2024 18:28:02

ACUS11 KWNS 091827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091827=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NY...western MA...and
southern VT

Concerning...Tornado Watch 617...

Valid 091827Z - 092000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 617 continues.

SUMMARY...Within Tornado Watch 617, a potentially favorable corridor
for a couple tornadoes is evident from southeastern NY into western
MA and southern VT this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates filtered
diurnal heating (temperatures climbing into the upper 70s/lower 80s)
within small cloud breaks in the vicinity of an east/west-oriented
warm front moving slowly northward across southeastern NY to near MA
and VT. Given the high-PW/tropical airmass in place, this heating
may yield sufficient (albeit weak) MLCAPE for a couple low-topped,
surface-based showers/storms this afternoon. Any convection that can
root in the boundary layer may evolve into low-topped supercells,
aided by strong deep-layer flow/shear associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby.=20

Additionally, the aforementioned corridor will be located beneath
the core of a northward-advancing low-level jet during peak heating
-- on the eastern periphery of the most substantial surface-pressure
falls. Here, large, clockwise-curved/sickle-shaped hodographs
(around 400 m2/s2 0-500m SRH per KENX VWP), will conditionally
support a couple tornadoes with the more robust surface-based
convection.

...Weinman.. 08/09/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_f8ltmry-qleDsnL9434TZZCzc3sVBVOUHBzT3VvvP62WdKOHb4JPt8nsxwZ3_dUx5lc5sZLV=
__E6BaVtZtKmT9UDkQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42657438 42987395 43107341 43057259 42917233 42607233
            41887396 41987435 42327450 42657438=20


=3D =3D =3D
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