Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 09 2024 07:31:28 ACUS03 KWNS 090731 SWODY3 SPC AC 090730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ....Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ....South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ...Edwards.. 08/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .