Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 09 2024 05:54:55 ACUS01 KWNS 090554 SWODY1 SPC AC 090553 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ....Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ....East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ....Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ...Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .