Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 09 2024 02:02:53

AWUS01 KWNH 090202
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-090800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0844
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1002 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Areas affected...Eastern SC...Southeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090200Z - 090800Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be likely
heading into the overnight hours from locally redeveloping and
potentially training bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Very moist and unstable air remains pooled up across
far eastern SC and into southeast NC as convergent low-level flow
remains in place around the southeast flank of T.D. Debby which
continues to lift north-northwest across south-central NC. MLCAPE
values are locally as high as 1500 to 2000 J/kg and especially
across southeast NC.

A persistent axis of moisture convergence is expected to remain in
place over the next several hours across far eastern SC while
actually tending to reload/strengthen somewhat across southeast
NC. This should favor concerns for locally redeveloping and
expanding bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Already radar
imagery shows one fairly organized band over eastern SC situated
west and north of Summerville, with a separate, but intensifying
band aligning itself from the immediate offshore waters
north-northeastward into southeast NC just to the west and
southwest of Wilmington.

The latest HREF guidance favors some additional rainfall amounts
overnight of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts. Given
these additional rains, saturated soil conditions, and high
streamflows from recent Debby-related rainfall, there will likely
be additional areas of flash flooding overnight.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7mn9ITIBlr3KDBd26_tTKXAcYzrsBDgiDAY5L1sjavykK0qJXyHf8BxTzSUOvIbFwxMy=
-8QH7e7shftDzMwvM5QyKOI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35237722 34787717 34077765 33607862 32887945=20
            32578022 32668097 32948116 33228097 33468033=20
            33757937 34287873 35217790=20

=3D =3D =3D
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