Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 08 2024 19:33:53

ACUS01 KWNS 081933
SWODY1
SPC AC 081932

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.

....20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.

....Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.

....UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.

...Mosier.. 08/08/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/

....Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low.  A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA.  This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.

....UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ.  Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected.  This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.