Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 08 2024 18:37:13

AWUS01 KWNH 081837
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-090035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0836
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Areas affected...southern NV into southern UT and northern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081835Z - 090035Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible through 00Z across southern NV into southern UT and
northern AZ. Slow cell movement, especially across southern UT,
will promote rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in 30-60 minutes and
possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...1915Z GOES West water vapor and visible satellite
imagery showed convective initiation underway across the Wasatch
Mountains in southern UT along with scattered cloud cover across
northern portions of AZ across the Colorado Plateau. The region
was located beneath an elongated upper level ridge that extended
WNW to ESE from southern NV into NM with an embedded weak shear
axis accounting for the cloud cover in northern AZ. 12Z area RAOBs
showed precipitable water values were above average for early
August with standardized anomalies of +1 to +2. In addition, a
remnant MCV was noted to be tracking west across northeastern AZ,
which may act as a focus for convection later this afternoon.

Immediate concerns for flash flooding exist across portions of
southern UT where clear skies and weak steering flow (0-6 km AGL
mean winds of ~5 kt or less) are expected to allow for increasing
CAPE and subsequent storm development with slow cell motions.
Given the environment, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 30-60 minutes
will be possible. Farther south, areas of cloud cover will limit
or delay heating but breaks between the clouds are likely to allow
for thunderstorm development within the next 1-2 hours. An
approaching MCV may also act as a focus for thunderstorm
development as it meets with an increasingly unstable environment.
Similar to UT, mean cell motions in northern AZ are also expected
to be slow which could support localized to scattered areas of
flash flooding, although areas of cloud cover bring into question
the coverage of thunderstorms that will occur later this afternoon.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4YWuaBVz8fsNZ9NStDlz564QKvRz4AKRdZI0-CfRtTUu7AryW8jC1voAZqopX1GVPqHx=
eJbOAXKc-3AYKocYZEtMu0A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38861173 38411092 36851073 35241063 34381003=20
            33871062 34401328 34991473 35991580 36591589=20
            37561465 37851391 38701255=20

=3D =3D =3D
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