Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 08 2024 17:12:24 ACUS02 KWNS 081712 SWODY2 SPC AC 081710 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PA...NJ...AND THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for damaging gusts tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby. Greatest severe potential is expected from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and the northern Delmarva Peninsula. ....Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central Ontario before shifting gradually throughout the day. Moderate to strong flow is anticipated throughout the base of this cyclone, spreading from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and OH Valley and into the Northeast as a shortwave trough progresses from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes into southwest Quebec. Overall evolution of this cyclone and associated shortwave trough will interact with Tropical Cyclone Debby, which may be in its extratropical phase by early Friday morning. This interaction will result in an accelerated northeastward progression of Debby, taking it from its initial position near the WV/MD/VA border vicinity quickly northeastward through the Northeast and into the Upper St. Lawrence Valley by early Saturday. Farther west, dampened upper ridging will persist across the Southwest and southern Plains. A convectively generated, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern periphery of this ridging, from eastern CO into the Mid-South. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough may follow in the wake of the first, reaching the central KS/western OK by early Saturday morning. ....Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Robust low to mid-level flow is forecast to extend throughout the eastern periphery of TC Debby, from eastern NC into southern ME, early Friday morning. This strong flow will persist throughout the day, gradually shifting northeastward with the parent system. The strongest low/mid-level flow (i.e. 50+ kt at 850mb) will remain in close proximity to the cyclone, spreading from far northeast VA/central MD early Friday into eastern PA/NJ by the afternoon and into southern New England by late Friday/early Saturday Widespread cloud cover and limited heating is anticipated across the region, but deep convection still appears possible amid the strong warm-air advection. Buoyancy will be limited, likely tempering the overall updraft strength within this convection. However, ample moisture will be in place, which should combine with the strong low-level shear to support some organized storm structures. Damaging gusts will be the greatest severe threat, but embedded circulations could be strong enough to produce brief tornadoes as well. Highest severe potential is expected from eastern PA to the I-95 corridor in NJ, where the timing of the system allows for the best overlap between the buoyancy/daytime heating and the low-level shear. Strong forcing could still result in some damaging gusts farther north into NY and western New England, despite very limited buoyancy. Buoyancy will be greater farther south across eastern VA/NC, but shear will be weaker, likely keeping the severe threat isolated. ....Northeast NM/Southeast CO into TX Panhandle and Western OK... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the TX Panhandle vicinity early Friday, with some potential that this activity will persist downstream into western OK throughout the day. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe threat low. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon, beginning in the Raton Mesa vicinity and then continuing eastward/southeastward through the evening and potentially overnight, maintained by a moderate low-level jet across west TX. As with the early morning storms, limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe threat low. ...Mosier.. 08/08/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .