Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 08 2024 16:56:44 AWUS01 KWNH 081656 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-082254- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0835 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1256 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...central NM into central CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081654Z - 082254Z SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to become scattered across the Rocky Mountains of central CO into NM through the afternoon resulting in flash flooding. Rainfall of 1-2 inches in 30-60 minutes are expected in the stronger cells. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 1630Z showed clear to scattered cloud cover across the Rocky Mountains of CO into NM with dense cloud cover east of the divide where low level upslope flow was present in the wake of a cloud front. A relatively narrow band of clouds extended along a shear axis from north-central AZ into northeastern NM with recent cumulus development noted across the southern San Juan Mountains. Water vapor imagery showed an elongated upper level ridge over the region extending from southern NV into western TX, coincident with weak 0-6 km AGL flow of ~5 kt or less. Precipitable water values from GJT to ABQ to the High Plains of CO (sourced from 12Z RAOBs and GPS data) were near to weakly above average for early August per SPC climatological data. Expectations are for continued daytime heating to promote thunderstorm development, initially along the higher terrain with convective initiation within the next 1-2 hours. MLCAPE via the RAP is forecast to rise into the 500-1500 J/kg through 23Z which should support high rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in 30-60 minutes due to the slow cell movement expected. While precipitable water values are not very anomalous, they are still respectable given this region is in the climatological max of moisture for the year. After initial development, subsequent storm motions will be somewhat chaotic and dependent on outflow boundary interactions. The greatest focus for thunderstorm coverage is expected in northern NM where upslope flow into the region will be maximized in both strength (15-20 kt at 850 mb) and direction nearly perpendicular to the terrain. At least localized flash flood potential will exist farther north into CO as well with storms moving a bit faster toward the east. There is some concern for flash flooding to the lee of the terrain in CO as storms to move off of the higher terrain into the High Plains where upslope flow and instability will be present, though instability will be dependent on breaks in cloud cover. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8-mKJuNnNmKBL4DO-gELKoRXp5GSjX63ean0UrGgArxLfnQpnHJR3LhM_zJoSicqqfPl= hsWhVDOlnEbSrSZpM_-F7C0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39990558 39180439 37480424 37070396 36940383=20 36530373 35900412 35360490 34510546 34450628=20 34430641 35350782 36430797 37100776 38040755=20 39430702 39810651=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .