Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 08 2024 15:08:12 AWUS01 KWNH 081508 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-082105- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0834 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1107 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...northern SC into NC and southern VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 081505Z - 082105Z SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain will maintain flash flooding from portions of northern SC into much of NC and portions of southern VA through the afternoon hours. Rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr are expected along with potential for 6 hour rainfall totals of 3-6 inches in a couple of locations. DISCUSSION...1445Z radar imagery showed the heaviest rainfall intensities associated with T.S. Debby located over northwestern SC into west-central NC and across the coastal Plain of NC. Recent observations have shown hourly rainfall mostly in the 1-2 inch range but the potential for higher rates (3+ in/hr) exists. Water vapor imagery from GOES East showed dry air continued to wrap around the southeastern side of Debby across the Coastal Plain of SC into southern NC, partially connected to an upper level shortwave located over GA. An axis of deformation was observed from Upstate SC into west-central NC along with an anticyclonically curved upper level jet and outflow arcing from eastern KY into PA. Debby is forecast by NHC to follow a general northward motion this afternoon but remaining slow between 5-10 kt. This motion combined with the placement of the upper trough to its west should maintain a slow moving deformation axis from portions of northern SC into west-central NC with continued rain rates between 1-2 in/hr and additional 2-4 inch totals through 21Z. Meanwhile to the east, better access to MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (per RAP forecasts) will support the potential for higher rainfall intensities where 40-50 kt of 850 mb flow pushing onshore will align with the mean steering flow, allowing for training segments within fairly narrow convective bands. It is here that rainfall rates could locally exceed 3 in/hr, although 1-3 in/hr should be more common. Spotty potential for additional 3-6 inch totals will exist through 21Z with areas of heavy rain spreading into southern VA during the afternoon. Overlap with areas already experiencing flooding and/or urban areas will likely generate considerable flash flooding in a few locations. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9R-Cm_jquE73lOHkj-zC2kgwuLdG-8ch5K6S6RZUlN7pJSLMJ4bU2wA6CKjVp19i_QHC= ns6N41a_YUH5NCCAcoMQFXg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37657953 37227769 35837648 34737624 34237707=20 33967756 33837807 34127823 34467826 34777849=20 35007872 35137908 35207945 35227979 34868025=20 34418052 34098067 33868092 33758123 33858158=20 34288197 35278215 36728114=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .