Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 08 2024 02:57:59

AWUS01 KWNH 080256
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-080855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0832
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...Northern and Eastern SC...Central and Southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080255Z - 080855Z

SUMMARY...T.S. Debby will gradually move onshore over the next
several hours across eastern SC. Locally well-organized bands of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce areas of
extremely heavy rainfall overnight which will maintain a
significant concern for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...T.S. Debby is in the process of turning back to the
north-northwest and will be gradually moving onshore over the next
several hours across eastern SC as the system comes under the
influence of an upper-level trough dropping southeast across the
TN Valley while the subtropical ridge builds westward across the
western Atlantic Ocean. This should promote Debby attaining a
steady increase in latitude with time, and this will also allow
for multiple convective bands especially around Debby's northern
semicircle to continue to cyclonically wrap north and
northwestward into the interior of the southern Mid-Atlantic
region overnight.

GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows the strongest convection right
now wrapping cyclonically across southern NC and into northeast SC
where some very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches/hour are
occurring. Strengthening low-level moisture flux convergence
coinciding with plenty of instability transport in off the
Atlantic Ocean is favoring the increase in convection around the
north side of Debby's circulation, and the expectation is for
multiple bands of strong convection to continue to develop and
organize going into the overnight hours which will be impacting
large areas of eastern and northern SC up through southern and
central NC.

Rainfall rates will continue to be as high as 1 to 3 inches/hour,
and additional storm totals going through 09Z (5AM EDT) tonight
may reach 3 to 6 inches, and especially given a very favorable
environment for cell-training. Additional flash flooding is
likely, some of which may be considerable to severe. This will
include especially concerns for significant urban flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8yl5wXQbSOal2KyxGhKhsPlZHW_FmHEMpgGXHBRUNub0eq13ZQHPR1VJ5bf_YfHNTCGr=
PGKjS_9eYTBkNnpfFvzEHbU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36087804 35877694 35357645 34637641 34367731=20
            33767794 33667864 33047904 32667956 32408016=20
            32858079 33918122 34858094 35598016 35957924=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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