Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 08 2024 00:54:00

AWUS01 KWNH 080053
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0831
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...Mogollon Rim...San Francisco Plateau...Southern
Arizona...Far Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080100Z - 080600Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of widely scattered intense monsoonal
thunderstorms.  Cells further south in S AZ will h

DISCUSSION... RAP analysis backed up by 00z RAOB from TUS and FGZ
show solid moisture in the lower levels and fairly steep lapse
rates to support the conditionally unstable air mass with
1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE and very limited CINH (5-15 J/kg).  Outflow
convergence from initial convection has been sufficient to break
the cap with increasing numbers of CBs over the last hour or so
across (and upstream) of the area of concnern, per GOES-E Visible
and 10.3um EIR.  Rapid expansion of the anvils/tops shows once the
cell start, inflow/updrafts rapidly load the cloud layer and with
ample local moisture upsloped from the deserts will continue to
support 1-1.5"/hr rates at least for a few more hours before the
CINH strenghtens and outflow collisions are not strong enough to
break through (generally after 04-05z).  An isolated spot or two
of 2" may still be possible through 06z.  Given greater deeper
layer moisture to the south and further congestus noted even out
through western Pima county...the greatest rates and coverage for
possible flash flooding will remain the greatest as they very
slowly propagate westward.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_hDwncyjNY3SXYf4wqLm3_rbwlkHxBcY7pgjDX75c07S-7amMBKTlbufkvvYHbhsePkS=
mYEw82xuiBCB4uhpbUjd7Es$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36951171 36701041 35310997 34390917 33070907=20
            32250803 31240833 31181062 31441213 31961343=20
            32461366 32691315 32761224 33291179 33901219=20
            34391290 34411300 35901352 36871295=20

=3D =3D =3D
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