Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 07 2024 19:29:25

AWUS01 KWNH 071929
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...Mongollon Rim & Southeast Arizona...Southwest
NM...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071930Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal thunderstorms capable of 1-1.5"/hr rates with
mergers for spots of 2"+ resulting in scattered incidents of
localized flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E/W WV suite depicts an elongated retrograded
mid-level trough along the Mexico/Arizona border with the
stronger/more compact wave well defined in debris mid-level
alto-stratus.  A secondary wave exists in proximity to the SE
AZ/SW NM corner but is more the tail end of the elongation and mid
to upper level shear axis.  Still, associated 20-30kt 3H jet
across central NM results in weak exit/diffluence ascent dynamics
across the central Mogollon Rim back toward the Mogollon Mnts in E
AZ.  CIRA LPW denotes banked enhanced moisture along the Rim into
SW NM with values in the .7" range, though animation suggests
recent ingested passes may have been over-estimated by a few
tenths, but qualitatively this pattern is favorable for moisture
flux into developing thunderstorms.  Additionally, analyzing the
700-500 and 500-300mb layers, also places the gradient across S
Pinal/Graham into SW NM generally coincident with high cirrus arc
noted in GOES-E Vis.  Values of 1.75" in the near Sun Valley and
values of 1.5" total into SE AZ, shows increased potential for
rainfall efficiency today.

While upslope is a tad weaker than recent days at 10-15kts in
850-700mb, the enhanced moisture combined with high insolation
across the Eastern Rim into the Black Range in NM has provided an
ample unstable environment as  SBCAPEs of 2000 to 3000 J/kg have
been analyzed.  Currently visible imagery shows destabilization
with some vertical and anvil growth showing greater than normal
rates of expansion indicative of said instability.  With the
enhanced moisture and isallobaric response.  Rates of 1-1.5"/hr
are more likely this afternoon particularly after 21z as HREF
probability lights up over 35-50% for 1"/hr across the central to
eastern Rim as well as nearer the core of deeper moisture in
Cochise to E Pima county.  Clusters are expected to form and so
some mergers are possible resulting in localized spots of 2"+.=20
HREF even hints as 20-25% chance of 3" through 06z, though this
will become more prevalent toward 00z-01z.=20=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9_shsV5W8o4X8L9ClfIu6Ly-1upbZRlX9ziqiTq7nCNn1rjE3GjZWLTJrmf3gzXO-Zk1=
smAsPq7sifBYMs-s4IsoIS4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35921320 35391191 34741096 34170923 33830787=20
            32550791 31370817 31220917 31291119 31681219=20
            32291246 32791170 33431139 33881198 34191273=20
            34521320 34921349 35481352=20

=3D =3D =3D
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