Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 07 2024 07:26:47 ACUS03 KWNS 070726 SWODY3 SPC AC 070725 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ....SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ....Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ...Kerr.. 08/07/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .