Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 07 2024 04:52:17 ACUS01 KWNS 070452 SWODY1 SPC AC 070450 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ....Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ....Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ....Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ...Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .