Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 07 2024 00:47:16

ACUS01 KWNS 070047
SWODY1
SPC AC 070045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated
tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the
Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona.

....Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic...

Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front
has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border
eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for
another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before
increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe
thunderstorm potential by 03z.

....MT into northern/central High Plains...

Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of
discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for
large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into
the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues
to eject eastward.

The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of
north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and
posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep
midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable
for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with
southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in
time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details.

....AZ...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of
strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates
across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around
35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel
easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and
better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop
across the lower elevations of southern AZ.

....Coastal Carolinas...

Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement
to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along
with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This
will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes
overnight.

...Leitman.. 08/07/2024

$$

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