Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 06 2024 17:17:13 ACUS02 KWNS 061717 SWODY2 SPC AC 061715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas Wednesday. ....Synopsis... Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will extend from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Wednesday as an upper rough over SK/MB drops southward toward the US/CN border into Thursday morning. Through 00Z, the strongest cooling aloft will extend into MT and ND, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern NE and IA. At the surface, low pressure will generally stretch from the ND/MN border into central NE and toward eastern CO/western KS through late afternoon, with a surface high from the upper Great Lakes to the lower MO Valley limiting moisture return. However, a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints should develop ahead of the front across KS, NE, and the Dakotas, aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to linger near the SC Coast, with persistent heavy rain threat along with a low-end risk of a tornado as low-level shear remains favorable. ....Central and northern Plains... Strong heating will yield steep low-level lapse rates along the Front Range and extending east/northeast ahead of the cold front into western NE and nosing into SD. This will result in an unstable and uncapped air mass near the front, where convergence will support storms forming after 20Z from southeast WY into north-central CO, and toward 00Z into SD. The high-based activity over WY and CO will favor locally strong wind gusts, and these storms may persist through the evening into across southern NE and northern KS with wind potential. Farther north, deep-layer shear will may favor isolated cells capable of marginal hail, but midlevel lapse rates look to be poor. ....Coastal Carolinas... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to be just off the SC Coast for much of the day, moving onshore early Thursday. Dewpoints over the coastal counties north and east of the center of circulation are forecast to remain in the upper 70s F, which may yield sufficient instability for embedded severe cells within banded convection. As such, will maintain low tornado probabilities for any stronger embedded cells. ...Jewell.. 08/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .