Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 06 2024 07:28:05 ACUS03 KWNS 060728 SWODY3 SPC AC 060727 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ....Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ....Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ...Kerr.. 08/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .