Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 06 2024 00:48:05 ACUS01 KWNS 060047 SWODY1 SPC AC 060046 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ....Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ....Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ....Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ....Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ...Leitman.. 08/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .