Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 23:10:45 AWUS01 KWNH 052310 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-060510- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0814 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 710 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...Northeast FL...Southeast GA...SC Lowcountry Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 052310Z - 060510Z SUMMARY...T.S. Debby continues to slow down as it moves off to the northeast and begins to advance into southeast GA. Life-threatening flash flooding will continue through the evening hours along the path of Debby from slow-moving and extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery, dual-pol radar and surface observations show T.S. Debby continuing to weaken while also slowing down as it begins to advance northeastward into southeast GA. Cloud top temperatures have continued to generally warm around what is left of Debby's inner core convection, but there continues to be sufficient levels of convective organization for some very heavy rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour based on MRMS data. Low-level instability around the immediate center of Debby is rather limited and this is certainly helping to yield a gradual decrease in the rainfall rates with Debby's inner core convection. However, this is juxtaposed against a corridor of increasingly unstable and very convergent low-level flow offshore of the GA coastal plain. In fact, the latest RAP analysis shows MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg oriented in a southeast to northwest fashion nosing toward coastal areas of eastern GA from the Atlantic Ocean. Going through the evening hours, there will still likely be a continuation of some locally intense inner core convection/rainfall with Debby. However, farther to the northeast ahead of Debby's track, there will likely be some highly focused bands of strong convection where the aforementioned instability axis and corridor of strong moisture flux convergence sets up for areas of eastern GA and gradually adjacent areas of the SC Lowcountry. There will tend to be a transition of the heavier rainfall rates up across these areas where these stronger bands advance inland, and there will also be a substantial concern for cell-training given the slow overall movement of the storm. Rainfall rates within the stronger convective bands will likely reach well into the 2 to 3 inch/hour range with some locally higher rates possible where some stronger mesocyclone activity sets up given the favorable low-level shear/updraft helicity near the GA/SC coast. Additional rainfall totals going through midnight are expected to locally reach 3 to 6 inches with isolated heavier amounts possible. Therefore, over this next 6 hour period, additional areas of life-threatening flash flooding are likely with potentially catastrophic impacts on a localized basis where the heavier rains focus. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8VvYt-DHD3SxO3xJjpl2FlGj9BpoVy3ZI5uLY5pCoUv43D1JGl_aKIxodgqf9ytEXogR= QQ4-mXKvxnzqtrKKDIl-k3o$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33478028 33167941 32857940 32408022 31648096=20 30988114 30108138 30248223 30818237 31598316=20 32498313 33308179=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .