Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 21:52:44

AWUS01 KWNH 052152
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0813
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Areas affected...Northern and Western PA....Central and Southern
NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052150Z - 060300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms with
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour may result in some isolated
areas of flash flooding going into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Late afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery and
dual-pol radar shows scattered areas of fairly progressive shower
and thunderstorm activity across areas of central and southern NY
down into northern PA. The convection is generally focused near
and south of a frontal zone where MLCAPE values are on the order
of 1500 to 2500 J/kg and in an environment of more favorable
kinematics that are conducive for locally organized convection.
Effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts is in place, and somewhat
stronger shear magnitudes are approaching the region from the west
which may yield somewhat greater convective coverage and
organization over the next few hours.

PWs are on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches and this coupled with
the instability and stronger shear-enhanced updrafts may yield
rainfall rates with the stronger storms of up to 1 to 2
inches/hour.

Despite the progressive cell-motions overall, some localized
cell-training may occur such that some storm totals could reach up
into the 2 to 3 inch range by early this evening. Given relatively
moist antecedent conditions and lower FFG values across southern
NY and northern PA in particular, there may be sufficient rainfall
amounts to promote some isolated instances of flash flooding
heading into the early evening hours. This will also include some
localized urban flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4GEs1LSKmgAzLqixw2_6NH9hgh3ZP4rRGq79adZ55hq5GJiKbEmayMAOmEJmTEuXKhBv=
U5iu_S3E1OmAiYVELdLm9gg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...OKX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43387545 43087431 42477393 41837385 41417442=20
            41287531 41107770 40547940 40618068 41438059=20
            42027966 42617895 43247823 43277713=20

=3D =3D =3D
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