Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 20:06:42

AWUS01 KWNH 052006
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-060205-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0812
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Areas affected...Northeast AZ...Central and Eastern UT...Central
and Western CO...Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052005Z - 060205Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
produce heavy rainfall rates heading through the afternoon and
early evening hours. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible where cells become locally anchored over the higher
terrain.

DISCUSSION..The early afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cooling convective tops over the higher terrain of northeast AZ
and northern NM up across areas of central and eastern UT through
central and western CO. Strong diurnal heating has already led to
SBCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg with some of the
higher instability parameters situated over eastern UT to the
south of the Uinta Range. Monsoonal moisture is rather firmly
entrenched across the region and especially across eastern UT
through central and northern CO which is generally around the
northwest flank of the deeper layer subtropical ridge situated
near the Four Corners region.

Additional surface-based heating/instability coupled with
differential heating boundaries and gradually some outflow
boundary collisions going through the afternoon hours will
facilitate additional convective development, with some of the
stronger cells becoming locally anchored near some of the high
terrain.

Given the increasing instability, and PWs that are locally 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal, some of the stronger pulse
convective cells may be capable of producing rainfall rates of 1.0
to 1.5 inches/hour. Some localized persistence of these cells,
especially over central and western CO, may yield a few spotty
totals of 2 to 3 inches.

This may result in at least a few instances of flash flooding, and
especially over any burn scar locations or slot canyon locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-Zs0LAjKiDpGusyNEkLNOjzAOr5OR5MZvU-AybRjHR-1RtS7vXaRNl8KgBq9YB_Oqhhg=
53sXVw2tUndxyLi3_iTlEb8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40780982 40400868 40530717 40400564 39530503=20
            38690490 37170472 35350537 34580674 34630873=20
            35511031 36371123 37221273 37911297 38661265=20
            39501172 40371121 40761067=20

=3D =3D =3D
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