Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1825
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 17:59:00

ACUS11 KWNS 051758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051758=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-051900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Areas affected...eastern New York...southern New Hampshire and
Vermont...and northern Massachusetts.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051758Z - 051900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are possible this afternoon/evening
with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s south
of a stationary front from eastern New York to near Boston with
MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg. Expect instability to increase this
afternoon with scattered thunderstorm development likely along the
frontal zone. 35 to 45 knots of westerly shear will support
supercells and a threat for large hail and potentially some damaging
wind gusts. This threat should primarily exist during peak heating
with storm intensity expected to wane near sunset.

...Bentley/Hart.. 08/05/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9wkQ03laSnT1PDQ0YYnWmO_dmQlxvLP5WTCVQ6eH8cilhvsnFhitzPzphcq50zZMyCkkZHOob=
0x3BfjPCAhmibNY6aI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42187467 42477531 42917543 43247545 43657456 43657145
            43177053 42657037 42277200 42187467=20


=3D =3D =3D
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