Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 07:23:26 ACUS03 KWNS 050723 SWODY3 SPC AC 050722 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ....SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ....Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ....Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ...Kerr.. 08/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .