Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 06:16:00

AWUS01 KWNH 050615
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-051215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0808
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050615Z - 051215Z

Summary...Hurricane Debby nearing landfall, bringing heavy rains
with 6-hour totals of 3-5" expected (locally 6-8"), resulting in
numerous to widespread instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Hurricane Debby is inching closer to landfall along
the Big Bend of FL early this morning, lashing much of
west-central FL with repeated tropical rainbands/showers. These
downpours have been capable of 1-3" hour accumulations (per MRMS
estimates), and the greatest producers (2-3" amounts) have been
clustered along and near the coastline from Port Charlotte to
Tampa. This populated stretch of the FL Gulf Coast will continue
to be of prime concern for new and renewed instances of flash
flooding through the morning hours, as relatively slow movement of
the tropical cyclone northeastward will bring continued impacts
from rainbands into the same areas that have already received as
much as 6-10" of rainfall locally overnight. Heavy rains (1-2"/hr
accumulations) from the inner-core of Debby will also begin to
more directly impact less populated portions of the Big Bend
(mainly from Cedar Key to Steinhatchee/Perry).

Hi-res guidance (00z HREF and more recent HRRR runs) support
expected 6-hour accumulations (through 12z) of 3-5" along and near
a portion of the FL Gulf Coast, from near Sarasota to Perry.
Locally totals are expected to reach 6-8", and possibly even
higher locally (with some of the HRRR runs in particular
suggesting some 10"+ amounts where rainbands are able to
efficiently train/repeat in the vicinity of SRQ/TPA). There is
significance to exceeding the 5" threshold, as this corresponds
closely with the 100-yr ARI (average recurrence interval) of 5-7".
When using the 00z HREF QPF with a 40-km neighborhood method, odds
of exceeding the 100-yr AR is between 10-20%, indicating the
high-end potential for this event. Numerous to widespread
instances of flash flooding are considered likely, and locally
significant to catastrophic instances are possible (particularly
if 5"+ totals occur over more vulnerable, populated areas).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-6irvJfRZ0_PgaBYXECv8fVfaDFX85px5XKEbHEoNl__Rp59pYD6EIId-GCw3uwcHy_Q=
hcA_BtLUNum1TzzW7cf0eX8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30688364 30628272 30308209 29588162 28368163=20
            27228203 26838252 28058311 29288353 29608481=20
            30238454=20

=3D =3D =3D
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