Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 00:56:27

AWUS01 KWNH 050056
FFGMPD
AZZ000-050500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0807
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...Central and Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050055Z - 050500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to locally broken areas of monsoonal
convection will continue to foster an isolated threat for flash
flooding heading into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
scattered to locally broken areas of cold-topped convection
impacting much of AZ, with some of the stronger storms generally
noted across central and southern AZ where instability is still a
bit better established.

SBCAPE values across these areas are still as much as 1000 to 2000
J/kg, and with locally colliding outflow boundaries, and localized
influence from orographics, there should be a persistence of
convective activity going into the evening hours.

The environment remains quite moist with a fair amount of
monsoonal moisture in place, and the rainfall rates with the
stronger storms may still reach 1 to 2 inches/hour.

This may result in some additional isolated flash flooding
concerns, with some spotty totals upwards of 2.5 inches where any
localized persistence of these cells occur. A gradual weakening of
the convection is expected by later this evening as the loss of
daytime heating and convective overturning helps to stabilize the
boundary layer.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9XxEjc7etqa0q4tX-NmVvuQbyJTvwlV2a3Vc1Kr-bBdY7oZMaS7h5tHaB709VF7JUuQV=
UwpY6jolxEKuK6KJ_O1XkxE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34901269 34781091 33690951 32160906 31460953=20
            31291068 31681246 32571346 34051362=20

=3D =3D =3D
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