Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 00:47:23 ACUS01 KWNS 050047 SWODY1 SPC AC 050045 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ....Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ....Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ....Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ....Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ...Leitman.. 08/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .