Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 05 2024 00:33:29 AWUS01 KWNH 050033 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-050630- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0806 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 832 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...Western FL Peninsula through Northern FL including the Big Bend Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 050030Z - 050630Z SUMMARY...Tropical Storm Debby continues to strengthen and should become a hurricane later this evening as it gradually approaches the Big Bend of FL. Meanwhile, very heavy rainfall bands continue to impact the western FL Peninsula while spreading farther north toward adjacent areas of northern FL. Flash flooding will continue to be likely heading into the overnight hours with locally severe/considerable urban flash flooding impacts. DISCUSSION...As of 8PM EDT, Tropical Storm Debby was centered near 28.1N 84.1W, or about 90 miles southwest of Cedar Key, FL. The storm is moving to the north at 12 mph. The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery continues to show improving convective organization with the storm as very cold convective cloud tops (-75 to -80 C) continue to become concentrated around the center. Coinciding with this is a rather well-defined and closed eyewall signature seen in the KTBW dual-pol radar. Meanwhile, impressive convective bands with very cold cloud tops and extremely heavy rainfall rates continue around the eastern semicircle of Debby's circulation with significant impacts ongoing across portions of the western FL Peninsula. Some areas from Sarasota northward through Tampa and Tarpon Springs have already seen 4 to 8 inches of rain. Additional very heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the western FL Peninsula with heavy convective rains also becoming more focused with time farther north across the Big Bend of Fl and adjacent areas of northern FL. A moderately buoyant airmass with MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg coupled with strengthening low to mid-level moisture flux convergence and low-level shear will favor organized convective bands capable of producing rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour. This coupled with notable cell-training concerns will support additional rainfall amounts associated with Debby reaching 3 to 6 inches going through 2AM EDT. This accounts for the latest radar and satellite trends which suggest Debby may be tracking just a tad to the right of the earlier forecast heading, and thus yielding somewhat heavier rainfall potential for the near-term across the western FL Peninsula and into the Big Bend of FL. Areas of flash flooding will continue in association with Debby, and locally severe/considerable urban flash flooding impacts are expected. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-NTh3vh4qUUj416f8uOx0sS3IzGwrOoCh8b7cHNDcLOPRjDCdLWdfgGqbP7y1up5u3bM= VdpzGzdt3ujG0yealVWDdck$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TAE...TBW... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 30688287 30398200 29648161 28658162 27798191=20 27208228 27268265 27868291 28688286 29358318=20 30078390 30548379=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .