Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 16:25:20

ACUS01 KWNS 041625
SWODY1
SPC AC 041623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
EVENING....

....SUMMARY...
Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of
Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning
as it intensifies.  Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging
wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening.

....FL/South GA...
Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of
the FL.  Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in
strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula.  Dewpoints in
the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep
tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon
thunderstorms.  Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are
possible.

....MT/WY...
Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough
moving eastward across ID.  This feature and an associated mid-level
speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern
MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening.  A consensus of 12z model
guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region,
tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening.  CAMs have
a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so
have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario.

....SD/MN/IA...
A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift
over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight.  Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not
until after midnight.  This region will be beneath the southern
fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates.  Elevated storms capable of
hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible.

....Northeast States...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New
England and eastern NY/PA into NJ.  Surface conditions are
considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level
lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat.  Nevertheless, a
few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small
hail.

...Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024

$$

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