Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 16:16:47

AWUS01 KWNH 041616
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0801
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...portions of New England, southeastern New York
State, and northern New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041615Z - 042215Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue as a band
of convection develops/expands southward and eastward through
21-22Z (5-6pm Eastern Daylight Time).

Discussion...Convection continues to move slowly
east-northeastward along an axis extending from near Hudson, NY to
near Concord, NH.  The storms remain focused along a weak
confluence zone as ascent associated with weak mid-level waves
across New York state and Pennsylvania continue to support
updrafts.  Storms also remain in a very moist environment (1.8-2
inch PW values), and insolation/destabilization has suported a
slight expansion in convective coverage in the past hour.  A few
of the cells are training, and spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates
continue to be estimated per MRMS data.  With FFGs in the 1.5-2
inch/hr range, flash flooding remains possible beneath prolonged
heavier rainfall.

Convective coverage is expected to continue expanding as the
primary confluence axis sags southward across the discussion area
through the afternoon.  As this occurs, a greater opportunity for
local cell mergers/training will allow for an expansion in
coverage of 1+ inch/hr rates.  Models also suggest development
southwestward across New York/New Jersey (near/south of the
Catskills) where a similar atmospheric environment exists but FFGs
are considerably lower (less than 1 inch/hr in spots).  Isolated
flash flood potential will continue through 21-22Z and may become
focused in urban/sensitive areas where training/mergers can occur.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9B2c_EygdelA8p2sGPlH-Ko12nwMc_btRdpq5nwewvT7tY4lbYechwKHpRtMn0GHq1Jz=
KT3h0hkz4vlviBeGivHFGGA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43427175 43327095 43007067 42487066 42027110=20
            41757185 41357250 40857367 40697436 40837492=20
            41767495 42157438 42627354 43067260=20

=3D =3D =3D
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