Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 12:53:13

AWUS01 KWNH 041253
FFGMPD
FLZ000-041851-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0800
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...portions of the western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041251Z - 041851Z

Summary...Rain bands associated with Tropical Storm Debby are
beginning to produce areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates along west
coastal Florida areas near Naples.  Convective bands are expected
to persist most of the day, resulting in an increasing flash flood
threat.

Discussion...For most of the morning, Tropical Storm Debby has
remained over the eastern Gulf of Mexico but maintained robust
convection within its eastern semicircle.  Over the past 1-2
hours, these rain bands have managed to align along the southwest
Florida coastline, with MRMS-estimated rain rates now approaching
2 inches/hr from Naples to Ft. Myers.  The airmass supporting this
convection is abundantly moist/unstable (1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 2.6
inch PW values), further supporting efficient rain rates with the
activity.  Furthermore, individual cells within these bands are
streaming quickly north-northwestward, resulting in training and
little overall translation of the band off its current heavy
rainfall axis.  So far, this has resulted in approximately 1-3
inches of rainfall over the past 3 hours in the aforementioned
areas.

Models and observations are both in agreement that rain bands will
align mainly parallel to the western Florida coast for much of the
day today within a similar environment supporting heavy rainfall.=20
These bands were beginning to affect southern suburbs of Tampa and
should overspread the immediate metro area over the next hour.=20
Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates (locally higher) are expected to
impact much of the region over the next 6 hours, and 3-5 inch
rainfall totals through 19Z are not completely out of the
question.  Locally higher amounts would depend on the persistence
of developing convective bands in any one location. These rain
rates should result in a few instances of flash flooding
especially in sensitive/low-lying areas.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9chluN5Y2XWIXAWFyWCd6Gz7n6VYrRZqczjx04DYYoVXwdUqdBE2w-GL5554huyA4y-p=
LHVVWn9Ep_SDOZo68peCY8c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29248302 29228254 28668210 27548160 26488115=20
            25788096 25548146 26388229 27608283 28518279=20
            28898285=20

=3D =3D =3D
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