Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 12:13:46

AWUS01 KWNH 041213
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-041607-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0799...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Corrected for Portland, ME geographical reference

Areas affected...portions of New England, eastern New York state

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041207Z - 041607Z

Summary...A band of convection was training and producing local
hourly rain rates exceeding 1.5 inches/hr in spots.=20
Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists through 16Z with this
activity.

Discussion...A west-southwest to east-northeast oriented band of
deep convection has materialized along a line from just north of
Albany, NY to near Portland, ME.  These storms are focused along
an axis of subtle 850mb/surface confluence and are being aided by
1) a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing eastward across New
York state, 2) marginal convective inhibition, 3) ~1000 J/kg
SBCAPE, and 4) nearly 2 inch PW values, supporting efficient
rainfall processes.  The band and associated confluence zone was
also oriented parallel to steering flow aloft, supporting
localized training and local rain rates approaching 2-2.5
inches/hr (estimated per MRMS) just west of Portland.  These rain
rates were threatening local FFG thresholds (in the 1.5-3 inch/hr
range), suggestive of at least an isolated flash flood threat in
the next 1-2 hours with this activity.

Convective evolution beyond 14Z is a bit uncertain.  The axis of
confluence supporting this activity is progged by models to shift
slowly southward, resulting in potential training of convection
across portions of southern New Hampshire and perhaps northern
Massachusetts through the late morning hours.  Convective coverage
is a bit uncertain given the modest forcing for ascent across the
area.  The overall scenario suggests at least isolated potential
for flash flooding where training/repeating cells can materialize,
however.  Trends will monitored for the potential of another MPD
highlighting flash flood potential sometime after 15Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!74QJokfFgLghw3yxn7_f31Ck9RP2wttmqEHp3p5I4SqSilKg4djvTHS8RpyRgaaxhe_6=
qBqlD8V4bP1ZiCOK3YgJfLU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44117021 44066928 43546926 43356991 42607089=20
            42197256 42037392 42537435 43117403 43387326=20
            43767175=20

=3D =3D =3D
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