Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1812
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 11:47:47

ACUS11 KWNS 041147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041147=20
FLZ000-041315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...Coastal west-central/southwest FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041147Z - 041315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two is possible into late morning with
an outer band of showers gradually advancing north from the
southwest to west-central Florida Gulf Coast, in association with TS
Debby.

DISCUSSION...A persistent arc of moderate-topped showers from
western Collier to Sarasota counties has had transient but largely
weak attempts at low-level rotation. This arc is within a corridor
for enhanced low-level SRH, around 200-250 m2/s2, per time-series of
TBW VWP data. Diminishing hodograph curvature exists to its south
per BYX VWP data, where low-level and surface winds are nearly
unidirectional from the south. The overall threat will likely remain
spatially confined and limited in potential intensity beyond a weak,
brief tornado or two. Greater potential for rotating cells across a
broader area of the central peninsula may become evident towards
midday.

...Grams/Edwards.. 08/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5IKuasVjsul3MTkoWhr18YL8WbJvvT_S-i9BFu3BntSXFPjXuyjMdoSAXx-sNU5yLvqtmEJhn=
ZUklqYsV_ucgUsr_jg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON   28038284 28018246 27308166 26808148 26448156 26278172
            26348178 26408194 26978220 27248268 27498283 27848298
            28038284=20


=3D =3D =3D
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