Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 06:05:47 ACUS01 KWNS 040605 SWODY1 SPC AC 040604 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected across parts of Florida and southeastern Georgia in conjunction with the approach of tropical system Debby. Elsewhere, strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing hail and/or damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Northeast/New England, the northern High Plains, and parts of the Upper Midwest area. ....Florida/southern Georgia... Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to gradually strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicating that Debby will reach hurricane strength early Monday morning, prior to making landfall over the Big Bend region of Florida. As the storm strengthens, increasingly strong, clockwise-veering winds with height will yield low-level shear favorable for supercells within convective bands. Correspondingly, a few tornadoes are expected, with the risk area gradually shifting northward through the period in tandem with Debby's advance. ....Southeastern Montana and vicinity... A surface cold front extending northwest-to-southeast across the northern High Plains region, and differential heating over the higher terrain of southern Montana, should both provide a focus for isolated afternoon storm development. Given moderate mid-level westerlies accompanying a short-wave trough crossing Montana during the afternoon/evening, shear will be sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. A couple of the strongest storms will likely be accompanied by wind/hail exceeding severe levels, with storms spreading eastward into portions of the western Dakotas through the evening/overnight. ....Eastern South Dakota to southwestern Wisconsin... Ahead of a weak vort max embedded within moderate west-northwesterly flow, diurnal heating in the vicinity of a very slow-moving cold front will yield ample airmass destabilization to support widely scattered afternoon storms over the eastern South Dakota vicinity. With time, some upscale growth may occur -- aided by development of an evening low-level jet, with a cluster of convection then spreading eastward across parts of southern Minnesota and Iowa, and eventually into southwestern Wisconsin. The strongest storms within the broader area of convection should prove capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds, and marginal hail, through the evening and into the overnight hours. ....Parts of the Northeast/New England... Near and south of a cool front sagging slowly southward across the St. Lawrence Valley area toward northern New England, daytime heating will support at least modest airmass destabilization. This combined with the gradual eastward advance of an upper short-wave trough should result in conditions favorable for development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Shear sufficient for multicell organization/clustering is anticipated, suggesting that a few of the stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and/or marginally severe hail through mid evening. ...Goss/Thornton.. 08/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .