Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 04:47:16 ACUS02 KWNS 040447 SWODY2 SPC AC 040445 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night across parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and northern Florida into southern Georgia. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period, with an increasingly prominent embedded high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories amd a persistent downstream low only slowly continuing to migrate across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, another prominent high is forecast to continue to build along an axis extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower Mississippi Valley. Within the northwesterly to westerly flow between the Southwestern high and the Canadian low, it still appears that one vigorous short wave impulse will rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario through northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Tuesday. Another more modest perturbation is forecast to dig east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer mean flow and shear along a southward advancing cold front across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern portions of the Great Lakes region, through New England, Monday into Monday night. A segment of this front may also surge southward through the mid to lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains, beneath the building mid-level ridge. Between the Southwestern ridge and another ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is now forecast to intensify into a hurricane prior to making landfall near the Florida Big Bend vicinity early Monday, before migrating slowly inland across northern Florida into adjacent southeastern Georgia by 12Z Tuesday. ....Upper Midwest into New England... Stronger potential instability will probably become focused within a narrow corridor along the front across parts of the Upper Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, beneath a remnant plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air. However, destabilization is expected to become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front from the lee of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England by Monday afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 30-50+ kts, which probably will become supportive of organizing convective development through late Monday afternoon and evening. This may include a risk for severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts becomes more prominent as activity spreads east-southeastward. While strengthening of flow may be a bit more modest across the Upper Midwest, it probably will still be sufficient to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development, given the thermodynamic environment. This may also include an evolving cluster, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, downstream of the mid-level perturbation approaching from the northern Rockies. ....Northern Florida into southern Georgia... It still appears that the approaching tropical cyclone will probably be accompanied at least some risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes. Some modifications have been made to the tornado probabilities, to account for the latest adjustments to the official forecast track and intensity. ...Kerr.. 08/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .