Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 00:37:34

AWUS01 KWNH 040037
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0798
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Southern UT...Much of AZ...Western
and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040035Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Some localized persistence of heavy monsoonal showers
and thunderstorms into the evening hours may result in some
additional isolated concerns for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows the
gradual tail-end of the diurnal convective cycle across the
Southwest with scattered clusters of locally heavy monsoonal
showers and thunderstorms continuing to evolve around the deeper
layer subtropical ridge that is centered over the Four Corners
region.

SBCAPE values remain locally on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg
with some of the greatest remaining instability noted over
northwest and far southern AZ. Additional boundary layer outflow
collisions from ongoing convection and the remaining instability
coupled with orographics should maintain a threat for scattered to
locally broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms for a few
more hours heading into the evening.

Some additional spotty 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts will be
possible with much of this rain falling in less than one hour.
This may result in a few more isolated instances of flash flooding
before the convection weakens and gradually dissipates heading
into the overnight hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7PbhNXrx18K5SkD5-laFIpNL4XwEtWUFwb25J-NzqiJC2n1Z1GqCcWaCPssCzv8eeEXp=
73pNRupmGN1NpufhXXUb_C8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38651209 37201103 36740931 36680761 36100631=20
            35300557 33930556 32820635 31530916 31531179=20
            32021318 32751402 34421431 36041429 37271423=20
            38281360=20

=3D =3D =3D
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