Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 04 2024 00:16:07 AWUS01 KWNH 040016 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-040615- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0797 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 815 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...Northwest SC...Western NC...Southwest to South-Central VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 040015Z - 040615Z SUMMARY...Locally focused areas of renewed shower and thunderstorm activity may develop this evening and parts of the overnight period across portions of northwest SC into western NC. Ongoing activity over southwest to south-central VA will persist for a couple more hours. High rainfall rates and slow cell-motions may foster some additional flash flooding concerns going through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E WV suite shows a mid-level trough digging gradually east-southeast into the central and southern Appalachians as a quasi-stationary front remains situated in a southwest to northeast fashion across northeast GA through western NC and into southwest VA. Earlier convection farther east has helped to stabilize the boundary layer near portions of the Piedmont, but there remains a corridor of moderate instability near the front with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg. The environment also remains quite moist with PWs close to 1.75 inches. There remains at least some active ongoing areas of convection across areas of southwest to south-central VA which should persist for a couple more hours. However, going through the remainder of the evening hours and a portion of the overnight period, the front should remain effectively stalled out across the region, and may become an active focus for some relatively small-scale areas of renewed shower and thunderstorm activity over northwest SC and western NC. Facilitating this threat will be the arrival of shortwave energy across the southern Appalachians with the aforementioned mid-level trough. This energy is likely to interact with a corridor of sufficient low-level moisture convergence/forcing and instability along the front to drive at least some scattered clusters of new convection which should be rather slow-moving. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms may reach 2 inches/hour, and the latest HRRR guidance suggests some storm totals through midnight may reach 3 to 4+ inches. Confidence is quite low with the overall evolution of this potential this evening and overnight, but there will be at least some concerns for additional flash flooding heading through the evening and parts of the overnight period. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-OotRt7IyttDBI681Dxhg4noCuglbD4armxSAAdsUgidi2yFqQnEO62cmxOo-O6DSPqi= XhGEkYvlGI1x6O1bXlQrMck$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37957884 37527863 36597931 35548023 34788149=20 34548251 34908294 35468243 35788192 36488103=20 37857969=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .