Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1808
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 21:36:13

ACUS11 KWNS 032136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032135=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-032330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...eastern CT...RI...southeast MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032135Z - 032330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph)
capable of pockets of wind damage are possible through 8pm EDT.  The
isolated coverage of the expected wind threat will preclude a severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A warm/moist boundary layer is evident in late
afternoon surface observations (temperatures in the upper 80s to 90
with mid 70 deg F dewpoints) over southern New England ahead of a
small strong-severe thunderstorm cluster in southwest parts of CT.=20
This activity will likely move east-northeast over the next few
hours.  Short-term model forecast soundings show upwards of 2000+
J/kg MLCAPE with PW around 1.9 inches.  A couple of the stronger
thunderstorm cores may yield a localized damaging wind risk into the
evening before this activity weakens.

...Smith.. 08/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6I87r7V3yNct1c5q2EecgFGow-tkWK3-FVdQtoyYaMsgmCUwqguiXxJNai3ZfDNNnUdEqQmI6=
rE9dTOo9nEVD8nUDKo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41567268 41677258 42067077 41877051 41657055 41507073
            41207283 41567268=20


=3D =3D =3D
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