Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 19:04:01 AWUS01 KWNH 031903 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-040101- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0794 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 303 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...central/southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 031901Z - 040101Z Summary...Recent convective development has focused along a cold front extending from near Andalusia in south-central Alabama to near Macon, GA. Environmental parameters suggest an isolated flash flood threat with this activity through the early evening. Discussion...Radar mosaic/satellite imagery indicates robust convective development from south-central Alabama to northeastern Georgia over the past hour or so. These storms are in a very moist/unstable environment, with 2 inch PW values and 3000 J/kg MLCAPE supporting robust updrafts and efficient rainfall rates. Furthermore, 15-20 knot southwesterly mean flow parallel to the front should support at least a limited opportunity for training/repeating, though weak low-level shear also suggests that outflow-dominant storms with multiple mergers and upscale growth into loosely organized clusters appear likely. These storms will be capable of areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates at times and in local areas given the aforementioned parameters and convective mode. Convection is likely to be diurnally driven, with a gradual weakening likely toward sunset in tandem with a loss of diurnal heating and potentially widespread convective overturning. These downpours will also be occurring across areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds areawide (though locally lower near urbanized/populated areas). These FFGs will be threatened on an isolated basis as cells continue to mature/evolve. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible in this regime. Convection will gradually propagate eastward/southeastward into areas of southern/eastern Georgia through afternoon, although isolated to scattered open-warm-sector development is also probable well ahead of the front. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4dkOePw2OvhKutl2QoVg_oKnBaUCeNE5DuGmsWTbNSvfVPTk-juYcen1qKF-OmOgfMY0= GpqA0-zLeFZypyTVRYu9Y-g$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33718313 33428195 32798145 31458210 30978343=20 30918549 30948667 31638689 32788524=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .